Our intention with this quarterly B2B COMPASS eNews is
to help you and your organization sort through
the good
and bad news of the day, refresh your research
button and encourage destination marketing best practices.
Your reactions and feedback are welcome!
Last week’s ULI expert panel discussion event at The Ponds community in Summerville was attended by at least 75 vocal builders, architects, planners and developers.
Under the spotlight were: Diana Permar, the celebrated consumer researcher, Matt Sloan, of Daniel Island, John Morgan, of Greenwood Development and Vince Graham, Founder, I’On Group.
Any of these observations ring true for your team?
Consumers have figured out what things actually cost in times of “limited resources,”
a trend that is projected to be the “new normal” of discretionary thrift.
Businesses MUST know up-front
what customers want and flush the strategy of build it and they will come.
“Small Palaces” are in, as square feet are sacrificed along with exuberant components …
wine cellars, media rooms and roman baths are now off the list.
The “Shadow Inventory” of homes put in the rental pool will impact supply conditions for years.
2010 remains a rocky transition year for hospitality and residential sectors with
REVPAR down 21% and 60% of homes over $500,000 being distressed sales … expect another
10% decrease in median values.
Club memberships and club financials are generally distressed.
Marketing has become driven by fresh buyer lead generation metrics and digital opportunities …
noticeable movement to eNewsletters.
Homesite prices are depressed with larger ones being cut in half to address the lower price point demand.
Lessons being learned from track builders who adjust quickly to the market and know about construction
efficiency …innovation is subversion of the status quo.
Smaller neighborhood development projects will reign over goliath.
Move up demand is way off, while families are opting to renovate as their “life-stage” changes …
staying in their homes much longer … think: “life-span” homes.
Watch for the senior market adapting to “co-housing” and codes allowing for rentable
detached “dependencies” on the same lot.
On the macro side, with US household formation at 1 million a year, the move up segment is bound to return.
In-fill growth will be “enabled” as municipalities see the merit in density as a way to control infrastructure costs.
Will Tax Increment Financing (TIF) ever be used for residential projects?
If you’re interested in playing a role in the smart planning movement, I strongly recommend you consider membership in the Urban Land Institute. Visit your Carolina District Council site for member benefit information: ULI
CharlotteULI
South CarolinaULI
Triangle
In August, a USDA Economic Research Service report confirmed CarolinaLiving.com surveys of 85,000 relocating Americans – that “large numbers” of Boomers will relocate to rural and small town settings for the quality of life. Are the Carolinas ready?
Details ...
Following wisdom of the successful “Hometown Mississippi” (believe it!) program to attract retirees, North Carolina legislation passed last year to enable creation of Certified Retirement Towns. Lumberton, NC, will be the beta in 2011, harnessing a formula being coordinated by Mark Roberts, in the Commerce Department in Raleigh.
AND, a similar “Certified Friendly” concept is being incubated in SC by yours truly and Jim Darby, Executive Director of the Santee Lynches COG. Going beyond just Boomers, our idea is to attract and retain the younger X & Y generation talent as well. We say, fund the economic research first. That $100,000 investment will define the metrics and serve as a measurement tool when our program rolls out.
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The encouraging news in October was the Post & Courier feature on a study by the SC Office of Research and Statistics. Using IRS data, state officials report that since 1990, 2.3 million people have relocated to SC, on average that’s 128,000 a year (gross-in) over the 18-year period. This confirms my forecasted projections of at least 150,000 new faces of all ages in 2009.
Five things for sure about that “gross” in-migration number for SC:
1. It increases every year and continues to increase for at least 25 years.
2. NC will receive twice the SC number.
3. 2011 marks the beginning of a significant increase, reflecting Boomer demand for travel and shelter across the Carolinas.
4. They ALL come first as visitors, about 6 million “turbo-tourists” in 2009.
5. Thousands more will buy land and second homes and maybe never relocate.
Questions: Are we ready for this guaranteed annual influx of 450,000 “gross-in” new faces of all ages to the Carolinas? Will it by growth-by-choice? Or growth-by-chance? What action is necessary to preserve the wonderful Carolina culture and social fabric? How will we insure protection of our pristine natural environment? Can the precious Carolina quality of life be sustained?
Or could we turn out like all the places you have no desire to visit and would never ever live? Interestingly, 20-year job growth in SC is projected at 16%, while skilled workforce growth is only 7%. In-migration growth will be a partial solution.
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